Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Market snapshot · 25 Jul 2026
- Yes
- 10.5%
- 24H Vol
- $121.9K
- 01SignalActive
- 02VerifyPending
- 03PricePending
The #1 tool to beat the prediction markets
Spot the winning side on Polymarket, Kalshi & more, in seconds, not hours.
Coming soon · Autonomous Trading Desk · Paper Mode First
Research intelligence, not financial advice. No guaranteed outcomes.
Live Markets · Polymarket · Kalshi
Scroll to verify the signal
- 01SignalCompleted
- 02VerifyActive
- 03PricePending
Polymarket Intelligence · Live
The market sees a price. Sentinel sees the event.
Track the signal, verify the source, then decide whether the market is wrong.
Hormuz Watch·Maritime Flow Signal·Source Verified25 Jul 2026 14:31Z
How Sentinel finds the edge
Every market starts with a real-world event.
Sentinel connects the event, the evidence and the price so you can see the case before you decide which side deserves your money.
01
Detect
Monitor geopolitical signals, market movement and large public trades in one live picture.
02
Verify
Grade the source, check corroboration and let the AI analyst show the evidence it used.
03
Price
Compare the sourced probability with Polymarket or Kalshi, then trade externally if you choose.
The live markets desk
See the price, the movement and the evidence in one frame.
Live market discovery · Polymarket price history · order-book depth · public whale flow
Coming Soon · Paper preview
Strategy Lab
Compare five paper strategies, inspect their risk rules and follow simulated results before any venue connection is considered.
Preview the paper labNot live today. No wallet, venue account or funds are connected.
R1
Defensive
0.5% risk / position
2% market max
10% gross max
R2
Conservative
1% risk / position
4% market max
20% gross max
R3
Balanced
1.5% risk / position
6% market max
35% gross max
R4
Aggressive
2.5% risk / position
10% market max
50% gross max
R5
Experimental
4% risk / position
15% market max
70% gross max
Source Hierarchy
Uncertainty, shown — never smoothed away.
Every marker, feed item, and briefing sentence carries its source tier, corroboration count, and confidence grade. You always know where you stand — and where the fog begins.
Classification--:--:--Z
OFFICIALGovernment and institutional statementsA1
WIREReuters, AP, AFP, Al JazeeraA2
OSINTVerified open-source intelligence accountsB1
LOCALRegional media and field reportersB2
UNVERIFIEDUnconfirmed reports and social mediaC
“A good intelligence screen is calm, dense, and readable. Noise reduction is the product.”
Sentinel Doctrine · Principle 01
Membership
The full terminal. 72 hours free.
One membership covers every desk and all 39 layers, the Ask Sentinel analyst, the AI market analyser, whale alerts, the workspace, and the members' Discord. Cancel inside the trial and you pay nothing.
MonthlyM-01
$30/month
Billed monthly · cancel anytime
- —72-hour free trial
- —Every desk, all 39 layers
- —Ask Sentinel + market analyser
- —Workspace & Strategy Lab preview
- —Whale alerts · Members' Discord
AnnualSAVE $210
$150/year
$12.50 a month effective · billed once
- —72-hour free trial
- —Everything in Monthly
- —Price locked for the year
- —Save $210 vs monthly
- —Members' Discord
Card required · No charge for 72 hours · Cancel in one click
Before You Commit
Fair questions.
What data does the terminal actually carry?
A graded OSINT wire — GDELT's global media sweep fused with a curated dozen high-signal outlets polled live from our 126-feed hand-verified catalogue, plus OSINT communities and monitored Telegram channels, every claim graded with the NATO Admiralty system. Beside it: military aircraft via ADS-B (including emergency squawks), vessel tracking with a military watchlist, a 387-satellite live catalogue, USGS seismic, NASA FIRMS thermal anomalies, GDACS/EONET hazards, space weather, GPS-interference cells inferred from aircraft navigation integrity, disease outbreaks (WHO), displacement flows (IDMC), climate anomalies, radiation watch, rocket launches, elevated volcanoes, protest unrest, internet blackouts — plus Polymarket and Kalshi market data with whale-trade prints and crypto and commodities tickers. Thirty-nine switchable map layers in all, every one carrying its own provenance card in the interface.
What is Ask Sentinel?
An AI analyst included with membership. It answers questions over the live terminal picture — signals, aircraft, quakes, markets, instability scores — and cites the objects it used; click a citation and the map flies there. Like everything in the terminal, it is a research aid that shows its sources so you can check them, not an oracle.
When does my card actually get charged?
Never during the 72-hour trial. A card is required to start it, and if you cancel inside the window — one click in the billing portal — you pay nothing at all. If you stay, your plan ($30 monthly or $150 yearly) begins when the trial ends.
Why not just follow OSINT accounts on X for free?
You can — that's where some of our signals originate. The terminal earns its fee by fusing those accounts with wire services, transponder data and official feeds on one map, grading every claim for reliability and corroboration, clustering duplicates, and writing the daily brief for you. It replaces the two hours of scrolling, not the sources.
Is the AI market analysis financial advice?
No. The analyser is a research aid: it reads the open web, states a probability with its sources, and shows the gap against the market price. It can be wrong. Nothing in the terminal is investment advice, and you should treat every output as a starting point for your own verification.
What do the confidence grades mean?
We score every signal with the NATO Admiralty system — source reliability graded A to F, claim credibility 1 to 6 — combined with corroboration across independent outlets and freshness decay. A 'B2' from three independent sources is a different animal from a single ungraded post, and the interface never hides that difference.
Can I cancel easily?
Yes — self-serve, one click, from the billing portal Stripe hosts. Cancelling during the trial costs nothing; cancelling later stops future charges and your access runs to the end of what you've paid for. No emails, no retention calls.